While looking into the herd status issue in my constant pursuit of knowledge and information in order to get a better handle on where the population is, I started poking around the DNR website for data/info. For the first time in as long as I can recall, we were not given a pre-hunt number from the Department. I have been looking for that data because it helps to better understand what the fawn recruitment was last spring. While searching I came across this video done by Wisconsin Eye. In this interview, the host asks a DNR rep what the official count is of how many deer there are in WI right now (July 10 2009). His answer was 1.2 million. You can watch that video at the attached link. Scroll down to the 9th video from the top of the list, titled:
" 07.10.09 | Perspective Wisconsin: Conservation Congress Celebrates 75 Years"
http://www.wiseye.org/wisEye_programming/ARCHIVES-pwi.htmlYou will see the question and answer on the video. Start watching at the 12 minute mark. You will hear the official estimate at the 12:40 mark. 1.2 million. The Department has published last year's over winter population calculation at 1,005,006 deer. That means the fawn recruitment for last year was 194,994 deer or a 19.4% recruitment rate. The 2008 recruitment was 25.2%. These last two year are very much out of the norm.
For those that might not have a firm grasp of this (and I mean no disrespect) I post the graphic below so you can see how fawn recruitment can be determined by looking at this image . This is not my data. This comes from the Dept.
Below you will see that data from 1980 until today. Again, all this data is DNR data with the exception of the 2009 total harvest. That is my estimate. The same is true for the 2009 post hunt population number. That is a product of my harvest estimate.
Looking at the above graphic, 1980 thru 2007 (prior 28 years), the average fawn recruitment was 53.8%
1998 thru 2007 (prior 10 years) the average fawn recruitment was 58.6%
2003 thru 2007 (prior 5 years) the average fawn recruitment was 60%%
And now in 2009 the fawn recruitment is only 19.4%. Look at 2003, the Dept. says 748,596 fawns were born and in 2009 only 194,994 fawns were born. What the heck is going on? And why should we care?
Remember, once at goal, we hunters are supposed to annually harvest the deer in excess of the goal so as to get back to goal each year. That is how you stay at goal. If 400,000 fawns are born in a year, the Dept. had better set quotas to remove 400,000 deer so the herd gets back to goal after that seasons hunt. Look at the year 2003. The Dept. says that 748,596 fawns were born. That year, we killed 485,965 deer, meaning we did not kill off the fawn expansion so the herd had a net gain.
Now look at 2008. The Dept. states that 307,120 fawns were born that year and we killed in excess of that (453,000) We killed more than were born which of course makes a herd shrink.
Now look at 2009. The fawn recruitment was only 194,994 deer. (The lowest in many many years and far below the average) and if my estimated harvest of 320,000 is a good number, we will have killed off far more deer than were born. We will have killed 1.64 deer for every fawn born. If you thought the 2009 deer season was poor and did not offer you much in the way of deer sightings, you're not going to like the 2010 season either.
Ok, so this is an alarming stat but beyond that, let's look at the other ways deer die beside at the hands of hunters because this plays a big role in where the herd is going and the number of deer available to hunters. I have posted the attached link before. It is the DNR's info sheet on predator effects on the deer herd. This only covers the Northern forest and Central forest regions but it's worth looking at.
It shows that in those two regions of the state, Wolves, Coyotes, Bear, Bobcats, winter and cars will kill 93,100 deer or a number of deer equal to 76% of what hunters kill. That is a big number and still does not include poachers, disease, farmers bailing fawns or all the other ways deer die. Why should we care?? If the Department's numbers are valid and only 194,994 fawns were born in 2009 and in just two regions of the state, 93,100 deer were killed by non-hunting methods, that leaves only 101,894 deer for us hunters to harvest but we know there are predators and cars and farmers and poachers and winters and disease in the other regions of the state so that 93,100 will surely be larger. Will an at goal population of deer (currently 737,000) provide enough annual fawn recruitment to satisfy the take of winters, predators, cars, disease, poachers, etc. and still provide enough deer for a quality hunting experience to the 640,000 gun hunters and 250,000 bowhunters? I have concerns because Wolves, Coyotes, Bear, Bobcats, winter, cars, disease, poachers, etc. will not be denied their annual take leaving far less for you and I. This is the reason I have been advocating for (and testified in favor of) an increase in the over winter goals.
http://dnr.wi.gov/org/land/er/mammals/wolf/pdfs/wolvesdeer2009.pdf
