At the request of a writer for a small town newspaper, I spent some time looking over harvest data for the last few years and DNR population goals since a lot of talk has surfaced about populations goals at the hearing on Wednesday and the fact that this is a DMU review year. I wondered what harvests would be like if we ever got to goal. Goal is a pretty low number and I contend that most hunters will not like the harvest potential that an "At Goal" scenario will bring. I looked at a few units and the 2008 harvest data. I picked units that were a mix of regular, Herd Control and EAB season structure.
2008 gun deer hunter harvest by unit
Unit.............. Gun/buck
14....................434
39....................371
59C.................2,582
62A.................1,770
67A.................1,693
69...................1,493
Here are the DNR expected gun/buck harvests for those units when these units reach goal. This Document was given to me in Jan. as part of the DMU Goal setting advisory board paperwork that each member received. It lists the expected harvest for each DMU in an "At Goal" condition.
Unit.............. Gun/buck
14....................515
39....................844
59C.................3,701
62A.................2,328
67A..................1,968
69....................2,305
If you're like me, you noticed something. In 2008, these units experienced a gun/buck harvest that was below what we can expect even in an at goal condition to the tune of the following values:
Unit................ %
14...................15% below what can be expected when at goal
39...................56% below what can be expected when at goal
59C.................30% below what can be expected when at goal
62A.................24% below what can be expected when at goal
67A.................14% below what can be expected when at goal
69....................35% below what can be expected when at goal
I don't think it's a stretch to say that these units are likely, already below goal and that a cold wet spring effecting fawning did nothing to cause this sort of drop in the harvest of antlered bucks.
It should be noted that this includes the units that have been EAB units for the last 3 years and were originally slated for EAB in 09. The 08 harvest data was finalized back in Feb. and the initial season structure map was released back on March 5th and it was the above data that was used by the Dept to make the map (as well as SAK estimates). That season structure map included many EAB and Herd control units even though the harvest data showed totals far lower than would be realized even if those units were at goal.
Why then was the initial EAB and Herd control season structure presented? and why does current SAK data show so many units above goal? At the Wednesday hearing, I was asked what I thought the current population was. I said that I thought there were roughly 780,000 deer on the landscape today and that we are far closer to goal than DNR is estimating. After reviewing this data, I am even more inclined to think that we are very close to an at goal condition on a state wide level and clearly FAR BELOW goal in much of the North.
While I have problems with current SAK population estimates, the above data used historic harvest trends to predict harvest rates when goal populations are reached. I compared that to actual harvest data from last year so I cannot understand why the early season structure map was released unless actual data was ignored in favor of SAK estimates telling the Dept, that the herd is still far over goal.
I apologize for the length of this post and for expressing my distrust in the SAK estimates. I seem to be beating a dead horse but no matter which way I slice this thing, I keep coming up with data that tells me that SAK is a bucket with many holes in it.
