Your Wisconsin Outdoor Community

The following question was asked via PM and by somebody on another forum so I will reply here.


the question: "Rancid, you don't happen to know the criteria involved with which antlerless tag availability in a DMU is determined, do you?"



Yes, you have to look to the WI Administrative Code for the answer. More specifically, NR 10 and even more specifically NR 10.104 (5) which states:


(5) ANNUAL ANTLERLESS DEER KILL QUOTAS. (a) Annual population estimate. The department shall annually calculate an estimate of the overwinter deer population for each deer management unit using the sex−age−kill method for calculating deer densities. The sex−age−kill method uses the following quantitative data for each deer management unit: proportion of yearling bucks in the harvest, proportion of yearling does in the harvest, proportion of males and females at birth, the number of fawns seen per doe during the summer, the proportion of total buck mortality due to hunting harvest, and the harvest by sex as registered during the hunting seasons.


(b) Quota objective. Using the overwinter deer population estimate established under par. (a), expected fawn production and overwinter mortality, the expected archery harvest of antlerless deer excluding those harvested under authority of hunter?s choice and antlerless deer hunting permits, and the deer population goal in sub. (4), the department shall annually calculate an antlerless deer kill quota for each unit with the objective of maintaining the deer herd at the established deer population goal or temporary overwinter target population density.


(c) Quota adjustment in ceded territory units. For deer management units in the ceded territory as defined in s. NR 13.02 (1), expected tribal harvest shall be deducted from the antlerless deer kill quota established in par. (b).


(6) ANTLERLESS DEER PERMITS. (a) Purpose. The department shall issue deer hunting permits in sufficient numbers to achieve the state quota determined under sub. (5).


(b) Permit formula. In each deer management unit, the number of permits issued by the department shall be determined by the following formula:


Permit number = State Quota divided by Predicted hunter success rate


(c) Success rate prediction. The predicted hunter success rate used by the department to compute the number of permits for each deer management unit shall be based upon the percentage of permitted hunters harvesting an antlerless deer in that unit during previous seasons. In new deer management units or units with significant boundary changes, the predicted hunter success rate shall be based upon the harvest history of similar units.

----- End snip

In a nut shell, they determine how many does need killing and multiply that by 3 or 4 because historically, we have never had a 100% success rate meaning 100 antlerless tag does not equal 100 dead does so they sell far more than they hope to kill knowing there is a historic success rate. This will p!ss off a lot of people that think the DNR sells far to many doe tags.

It should also be noted that as population drop, the amount of time needed to see and harvest a deer goes up greatly meaning success rates drop off rapidly. Knowing this, the Dept. will sell even more doe tags to negate the lack of success. This is not intuitive but makes sense when you think about it.

If a large population of antlerless deer allows for easy harvest, perhaps selling double the number of tags (if a 50% success rate is estimated) is sufficient to reach the harvest quota. If the population is small, they might have to put 5 times as many tags out to get the same number of does killed just because it's harder to even find a doe.

Does that make sense? I don't know if I explained it well. Either way, it has the effect of making hunters angry if for no other reason than they don't understand the rationale behind it

At the 2010 Annual convention, WBH members discussed the Current herd status and the issues facing deer hunters in deer management units that are experiencing low deer numbers. As a result, the attached release is being put out by WBH.



http://www.thewheelerreport.com/releases/mar10/mar8/0308bowhuntersdeer.pdf

While looking into the herd status issue in my constant pursuit of knowledge and information in order to get a better handle on where the population is, I started poking around the DNR website for data/info.  For the first time in as long as I can recall, we were not given a pre-hunt number from the Department.  I have been looking for that data because it helps to better understand what the fawn recruitment was last spring. While searching I came across this video done by Wisconsin Eye. In this interview, the host asks a DNR rep what the official count is of how many deer there are in WI right now (July 10 2009). His answer was 1.2 million. You can watch that video at the attached link. Scroll down to the 9th video from the top of the list, titled:

" 07.10.09 | Perspective Wisconsin: Conservation Congress Celebrates 75 Years"

http://www.wiseye.org/wisEye_programming/ARCHIVES-pwi.html

You will see the question and answer on the video. Start watching at the 12 minute mark. You will hear the official estimate at the 12:40 mark. 1.2 million. The Department has published last year's over winter population calculation at 1,005,006 deer.  That means the fawn recruitment for last year was 194,994 deer or a 19.4% recruitment rate. The 2008 recruitment was 25.2%. These last two year are very much out of the norm.

For those that might not have a firm grasp of this (and I mean no disrespect) I post the graphic below so you can see how fawn recruitment can be determined by looking at this image . This is not my data. This comes from the Dept.



Below you will see that data from 1980 until today. Again, all this data is DNR data with the exception of the 2009 total harvest. That is my estimate. The same is true for the 2009 post hunt population number. That is a product of my harvest estimate.



Looking at the above graphic, 1980 thru 2007 (prior 28 years), the average fawn recruitment was 53.8%

1998 thru 2007 (prior 10 years) the average fawn recruitment was 58.6%

2003 thru 2007 (prior 5 years) the average fawn recruitment was 60%%

And now in 2009 the fawn recruitment is only 19.4%.  Look at 2003, the Dept. says 748,596 fawns were born and in 2009 only 194,994 fawns were born. What the heck is going on? And why should we care?

Remember, once at goal, we hunters are supposed to annually harvest the deer in excess of the goal so as to get back to goal each year. That is how you stay at goal. If 400,000 fawns are born in a year, the Dept. had better set quotas to remove 400,000 deer so the herd gets back to goal after that seasons hunt. Look at the year 2003. The Dept. says that 748,596 fawns were born. That year, we killed 485,965 deer, meaning we did not kill off the fawn expansion so the herd had a net gain.

Now look at 2008. The Dept. states that 307,120 fawns were born that year and we killed in excess of that (453,000) We killed more than were born which of course makes a herd shrink.

Now look at 2009. The fawn recruitment was only 194,994 deer. (The lowest in many many years and far below the average) and if my estimated harvest of 320,000 is a good number, we will have killed off far more deer than were born. We will have killed 1.64 deer for every fawn born. If you thought the 2009 deer season was poor and did not offer you much in the way of deer sightings, you're not going to like the 2010 season either.

Ok, so this is an alarming stat but beyond that, let's look at the other ways deer die beside at the hands of hunters because this plays a big role in where the herd is going and the number of deer available to hunters. I have posted the attached link before. It is the DNR's info sheet on predator effects on the deer herd. This only covers the Northern forest and Central forest regions but it's worth looking at.

It shows that in those two regions of the state, Wolves, Coyotes, Bear, Bobcats, winter and cars will kill 93,100 deer or a number of deer equal to 76% of what hunters kill. That is a big number and still does not include poachers, disease, farmers bailing fawns or all the other ways deer die. Why should we care?? If the Department's numbers are valid and only 194,994 fawns were born in 2009 and in just two regions of the state, 93,100 deer were killed by non-hunting methods, that leaves only 101,894 deer for us hunters to harvest but we know there are predators and cars and farmers and poachers and winters and disease in the other regions of the state so that 93,100 will surely be larger. Will an at goal population of deer (currently 737,000) provide enough annual fawn recruitment to satisfy the take of winters, predators, cars, disease, poachers, etc. and still provide enough deer for a quality hunting experience to the 640,000 gun hunters and 250,000 bowhunters? I have concerns because Wolves, Coyotes, Bear, Bobcats, winter, cars, disease, poachers, etc. will not be denied their annual take leaving far less for you and I. This is the reason I have been advocating for (and testified in favor of) an increase in the over winter goals.

http://dnr.wi.gov/org/land/er/mammals/wolf/pdfs/wolvesdeer2009.pdf

I know there are several Wisconsin Bow makers but there is a reletively newer company that is making some great bows that rival todays bigger bow companies. Signature Bow Company of Peshtigo is making great bows with custom touches. Marshall Lund has built an absolutely beautiful bow for us that is as much a piece of art as it is a great, smooth and quiet, hunting or target bow.  Here are some of the specs.
 
Axle to Axle:  35 1/2 inches

Brace Height: A forgiving 9 full inches"

Draw weight: 60 Pounds (also available in 55 Pounds)

Draw Length: 27-31 inches

Let-off: 86%, single cam design

Bow weight (W/ accessories): 4.6 pounds

Utilizing a beyond parallel limb design, Marshall created a bow that is incredibly smooth. After shooting 3 of his signature bows, I can tell you that you won't find a bow with less hand shock or vibration. It's high let-off and lack of vibration make it a real treat to shoot.

When I began the process of creating this custom Bow With Signature Bow, our desire was to make a one of a kind bow using our associations colors (Green, Black and Yellow) and wherever possible, us Wisconsin made parts and accessories but to also make a complete package including all accessories because we plan to raffle off this bow. Here are a few more detail.

This bow features a machined 6061 Aluminum Riser, top quality Barnsdale limbs, Custom made strings, a custom made Quad rest and 4 pin, Viper sight that were specially anodized yellow to match the color scheme. The bow features dual string tops and multiple BowJax suppressers as well as a bi-pod/stabilizer system and a matching wrist sling. 

This bow also features carbon fiber inlays and a built in tree hook but it doesn't stop there, while the bow is now complete, we are in the process of adding a custom quiver, custom made arrows tipped with Rage Slip-cam Broadheads because it was our desire to make this package as much "Wisconsin made" as possible. We are in the process of including additional accessories but you get the picture so far.





Custom Viper H500 4 pin sight with varying pin sizes for greater view at longer ranges. The pin sizes are 0.29, 0.19 and 0.10



A custom Quality Archery Designs Quad Ultra drop away rest

















I have been lucky enough to shot this bow and I'm still amazed at how quiet this bow is as well as the lack of hand shock. I made a video of myself shooting the bow to show the lack of vibration during the shot. Check it out by clicking the image below.



I could not be more pleased with this bow.

Part of the recommendations from the legislature after the Madison hearing on EAB was for the Dept. to utilize more car kill data as an indicator of population trends. When the gun buck harvest rates are high, so are the car kill numbers and so is the population as a whole. We all know that the gun buck harvest last year was the lowest since 1983. The WI car deer crash data by County came out today for 2009 (the fiscal year runs from June to July so 09 ended on June 30th) and low and behold, We hit deer in 2009 at about the same rate as we did back in 1983 (26 years ago) In fact, there has only been one year since 1983 that we hit fewer deer in WI and that was within only a few hundred of  this year's total.
   
Statewide, the car deer crashes dropped another 11.2% from last year's drop. Since EAB kicked in 2004, the car deer crashes have dropped steadily.

2004: ......... 48,316

2005: ......... 41,687

2006: ......... 36,900

2007: .......... 35,685

2008: ......... 31,951

2009: ..........28,374

Since 2004, the gun buck harvest has dropped 22%. The car deer crashes in that same period have dropped  41%.

I looked at 2 of the counties that historically had some of the highest numbers in the state for car deer crashes over the years. Waupaca  and Shawano County (62B) which was slated to be EAB again this year (before the EAB hearing)  The Dept's estimates 62B is still 120% over goal at 55 deer per square mile of range. Here are the car kill numbers for Waupaca County.

2004: ....... 2,333

2005: ........1,701

2006: ........1,943

2007: .......1,335

2008: .......1,027

2009: .......905

Car kills have dropped 61% in that time and yet the Dept. says that in unit 62B, if half of the deer in that unit were killed today, they would still be 20% over goal.  For Shawano County (the other half of 62B), the car deer crash results are the same.

2004: ......... 2,150

2009: ........... 970 ........  a  55% reduction.

Here are the gun harvest numbers for 62B

2004: 2,554 bucks ..........4,894 antlerless

2008: 2,003 bucks .........4,139 antlerless

That's a 22% reduction in buck harvest and with unlimited antlerless tags and EAB, a 15% reduction in antlerless harvest.

Nobody wants more car deer crashes but we do want accurate population estimates so that season structures can be set accordingly. My guess is that the residents of Waupaca County are shocked that they are 120% over goal with the deer numbers of today. Those residents include farmers of which there are only 2 enrolled in the crop damage program in Waupaca County while Shawano County only has 1 farmer enrolled. Clearly the population in 62B is way down, there is very little ag damage, a huge drop off in car kills and harvest and yet their 120% over goal. This is why hunters from Waupaca County went to Madison in April.  I spoke with some of them. They said "Enough already with this EAB!" We don't have the deer the DNR thinks we do. STOP ALREADY!

To those that love EAB because of the older bucks EAB is credited for. That was never the reason for EAB and is not reason to continue with EAB. Let's get a better handle on the population estimate, the over winter goals increased, revise what is considered Deer range and then, let's talk about the need to reduce the deer herd.  Not before.

With permission from a bowhunter on another forum.

Memory card stolen by tresspasser.

Location: Spring Geen Wisconsin, about 30 miles west of Madison

Image taken and stored to camera's internal memory between Sept 1 and Sept 12

It was a great weekend for the WBH Broadhead shoot. Sunny and warm with little wind made the conditions perfect for the 2009 Ultimate Broadhead Challenge. Thanks to Dan Ilkich (Serb) for supplying the materials and building the target and for coming early with Mark Summerfelt to help set up the novelty shoot on Friday afternoon. We set up the shoot on Friday so we would be ready for the Saturday morning opening of the Broadhead shoot but as soon as we had the challenge set up on Friday, we had requests to take the challenge by those that arrived early. The Father and Son team of Marvin and Jesse Joles had met the challenge last year and were eager to qualify for this years event. 14 year old Jesse made the first attempt of the year but it was his Father Marvin that was the first to put his Muzzy tipped broadhead through the 3 1/2 inch hole at 35 yards.




After a few tries, 14 year old Jesse (with a 70# Matthews Monster) made it through the hole and once again, the Joles were qualified for the Sunday shoot off.





On Saturday morning, the shooters filtered in to make an attempt on the wooden target. Some were successful while others were not. Here is a video of a young fellas attempt to qualify. The loud "thunk" lets you know that he was not successful because the ones that made it through the hole, stuck into a foam target behind the hole and made little if any noise.



Here is a close up view of what a miss looks like.



And another




The archers that clearly missed the hole lost nothing but a little pride and a broadhead. Those that were much closer lost a bit more. If they were close enough to ALMOST make it through the hole but caught just one blade on the edge of the hole, the outcome was bit more devastating. If a blade caught the hole, the arrow would whip sideways and most likely, the rear of the arrow would snap off. Here is a picture of the results of one such shot.



Here is a video of one of the shots that caught the edge. You can see the arrow hit the bottom edge of the wood at about the 6 O clock position. Most of the arrow made it through the hole.



While many attempts came up short, there were those that met the challenge. WBH Director Greg Prince was one such archer. Here's Greg making the attempt with his new Bowtech Admiral.

Here is the video of Greg making it through the hole.



While most of the archers making an attempt were men with compounds, we had a larger number of traditional archers this year than last year. Trad archers and those 12 and under made their attempts from 20 yards.



Last year, we only had one female archer try the shot. This year we had 3. Here is Forum member WBHgal giving it a try.



By the end of day one, we had 52 archers make an attempt with 9 being successful. The last person through the hole on Day one was Mark Summerfelt and he did it in some very low light conditions. Dan (Serb) was also one of the 9 that were able to make it through the hole on the first day. With the light fading, it was time to enjoy the campfire.



On day 2, we once again had archers trying to meet the challenge. One such archer was young Katie Makovec. Even though he was wearing a walking cast on her foot, she was eager to try the shot.






After Katie's attempt, her 9 year old brother Joseph wanted to give it a go but did not have a broadhead. I weighed his field tip and gave him one of the 100 grain heads I brought along for just such an occasion. Joseph was the youngest archer to try the shot.



Joseph showed up his big sister and made the shot!!!!    He was now entered into the shoot off round.



At 4:00 pm, we ended the qualifying so those that were successful had time to get sighted in for the shoot off distance of 45 yards (25 yards for young Joseph)

The 14 archers that met the challenge and advanced to the shoot off were:

Marvin Joles
Jesse Joles
Last year's challenge winner Corey Meske
Dan Ilkich (Serb)
Mark Summerfelt
Ron Beasley
Tom Christian
Jason Coleman
Robert Keather
Ron Kulas
Greg Prince
Dave Smith
Jeff Zeulsdorf
9 year old Joseph Makovec

While making some last minute adjustments for the shoot off, Dan (Serb) had an equipment malfunction and was without a bow. In the sprite of good sportsmanship, Mark Summerfelt let Dan use his bow.

Because young Joseph was shooting from the 25 yard distance, he was the first archer to attempt the shot. You could have heard a pin drop as he lined up  the shot but the crowd erupted as his arrow made it through the hole. He had applied some pressure to the adults.



Joseph was kind enough to help pull the names out of a hat to determine the order of the shooters. The first name he pulled was Greg Prince.



Greg was unable to make it through at 45 yards. The next archer was Serb using a borrowed bow.



Serb was unable to make the shot. The next to try was Robert Kaether.



Robert made the shot which meant there would be another shoot off with at least him and young Joseph. The  next to try was Jesse Joles



Jesses was not able to make it through the hole. Up next was Jason Coleman.



Jason was not able to make the shot. Up next was Ron Kulas. He too was not able to make the shot. (no picture available since I could not photograph myself and shoot at the same time)

Up next was Tom Christian. Tom also made it through the hole which meant we would have at least a 3 person shoot off.



The next archer was last year's champion, Corey Meske. Corey made it though the hole again and once again proved why he was last years champ. In two years and 5 attempts, Corey put his arrow through the hole meaning a 4 person shoot off round.



The next to try was Ron Beasley. Ron was not able to make it through the hole.



Up next was Marvin Joles. Marvin was not able to make it through the hole.



The last archer in the first shoot off round was Mark Summerfelt  Mark was also unable to make it through the hole. 2 archers that qualified, failed to return for the final shoot off.



That meant that Joseph, Robert, Tom and Corey would have to do it again. Joseph (the crowd favorite) was the first to try. His shot was perfectly aligned but came up less than an inch high. Joseph received a large round of applause from the crowd.



Corey Meske was next and for the first time ever, Corey left a broadhead in the wood and was eliminated.


Up next was Tom Christian. Tom was the first to make it through the hole in the final shoot off.


The final archer was Robert Kaether but Robert was unable to make the shot meaning Tom Christian was this years Ultimate Broadhead Challenge winner. Because we had enough prizes for 2nd place, we kept track of where the other 3 archers had hit the target so we could determine who was 2nd based on who was closest to the hole. The 2nd place winner was Young Joseph Makovec. For the 2nd year in a row, we had more Mathews archers qualify but a Hoyt Bow won the event. The other bows to make it wer Bow-Tech, PSE and Full Force.



Congrats to Joseph and Tom for their outstanding archery ability and I hope they return next year to defend their position. Thanks to all that came out and supported the WBH and this event.

Soon the Dept. will release it's pre-hunt population estimate. This is the forecast for LAST YEAR that I copied from the DNR web

"Even after a pretty tough winter in parts of the state and a harvest of more than 520,000 deer in the 2007-08 seasons, the deer herd is still a good deal larger than established population goals in much of Wisconsin. Wildlife biologists estimate that the herd numbers between 1.5 and 1.7 million animals going into the fall 2007-08 seasons."


When the season was over and we learned the total kill was just over 450,000, the Dept. stated that the actual pre-hunt herd was 1.52 Million and that they were within the 1.5 to 1.7 range they had predicted. The Dept. also released the over winter (post hunt 08) population estimate of 1,005,006 deer. I looked at the Dept's prehunt, post hunt and harvest data for the last 30 years to get a handle on the expansion rate of the herd for each of the years. Using that data I was able to get the expansion rate (herd growth) for each year. The 30 year average was 1.51. The 20 year average was 1.526 and the 10 year average is 1.528. The extreme spikes during those 30 years was an expansion rate of 1.84 and 1.25 with the 1.25 coming last year.


Since the Dept states that the over winter population was 1,005,006, I simply multiplied that number by the average expansion rate of 1.52 to get a pre hunt prediction of 1.53 million going into this fall. If I use last years expansion rate of 1.25, I get a pre-hunt prediction of 1.26 million. If I use the extreme of 1.84, I get a pre-hunt prediction of 1.85 million


So what will the Dept. give us as a 2009 pre-hunt prediction? Will it be:


1.26 million


1.53 million or


1.84 million


My guess is that the Dept. will soon make a public herd prediction for this years herd at 1.4 to 1.5 million deer. I wonder how the hunting public receives this number? Will hunters say: "I didn't see many (if any) deer when the Dept said there were 1.5 to 1.7 million deer and now their telling me this year there will be even less. Why bother buying a license?"